Thursday, 1 December 2016

Scotland's Education

The UK parliament issues a report yesterday'Demography of Scotland and the implications for devolution', copy of which is here
It is a sobering read, it highlights many challenges including our ageing population and lower life expectancy - as demonstrated in the report




A substantial part of the report focused in on Scotland's economic sustainability and growth, in particular the need for migration and ensuring that Scotland has a highly trained/skilled workforce in order to grow business and attract investment.

I was shocked to see SNP's Pete Wishart MP tweet in relation to the report


Err - is he really asking that question? shouldn't the Scottish Government have all the answers and a plan that has seen them implementing strategies over the past 9 years they've been in office? -
It would appear not so let me try and point Mr Wishart on what not to do ....

Firstly there is the appalling attainment gap in our primary schools here -

only now have the SNP put a plan together to address it, time will tell whither that strategy will succeed but we are looking at another generation of kids that will fail to achieve.

Then there is high school performance league tables here, which, similar to the primary school tables, shows a clear class divide between the rich and poor, with many schools struggling to get their pupils 5 highers or more which is the amount required for most university places.

Moving up to further education we have seen unprecedented cuts in our colleges here.

I hear students being unable to complete their two year course as they have been kicked off it after one year by the college so that they can offer the place to school leavers in order to ensure youth unemployment figures remain low, thus they are unable to complete their training and gain their certificates.

Last but not least are our Universities.  We have some of the best Universities in the world and rightly they attract a lot of interest from international students. However the number of places for Scots kids are falling as reported here



Free higher education is still available in Scotland.  The Scottish Government however prefer to extend the gift of free University tuition to our European rather than rUK neighbours in the hope it would stimulate migration into the country, the subject of which is mentioned in the report here


Given that it costs c. £93m p.a. to provide free higher education to EU domiciles, one would expect the Scottish Government to show the tax payer a return on their investment, however, as demonstrated in the graph, most come to Scotland to study and leave after graduation and there is little 'pay back' for the tax payer.

In order to get official statistics into University outcomes I sent FOIs to the Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA), details of which is here (when it came to providing me with the statistical tables HESA preferred to email it to me instead of making it public) and also to the Students Awards Agency for Scotland, details here.

I asked the HESA for all students who receive free university places in all subjects and also extract EU domiciled specific data. I also asked them to break down the stats to give me those who are studying medicine as we have a shortage of doctors in this country as featured in the BMA here




I was interested in knowing how many medical students stayed in Scotland after graduation.  The figures are shocking and would explain why there is a shortage of doctors.



The HESA tables are quite complicated and needed amalgamating in order to get the full picture.

The HESA data shows a huge increase in the number of EU students from 15,930 in 2009/10 to 20,805 in 2014/15. Not all students qualified and in years 2009-2015 the average pass rate was 35%. The average number of students who stayed and worked in Scotland after finishing University was 3.67%.

The figures detailing our medical schools show that very few EU domiciles stayed to work in Scotland after graduating but it also shows the same applies to Scottish/rUK students.

The results of the amalgamated tables:



Data from the Students Awards Agency for Scotland show that EU domiciled students did not require students loans, which suggests its EU middle classes taking advantage of free tuition.


Is it really too difficult for Pete Wishart and his colleagues to join the dots and see where they've went wrong?  It would appear so and I see no evidence that there are coherent plans to put it right.


Tuesday, 14 June 2016

NHS Scotland Nursing Figures

This post is an update on the NHS Workforce blog published in February.

At First Minister's Questions on the 9th June, Nicola Sturgeon reiterated that the SNP have increased nursing staff by 6% since coming to power; this would gives nursing statistics an increase of over 2000 nursing staff.  One would be forgiven if they interpreted this as our NHS having 2000 qualified nurses working in our wards and our community, as stated by Health secretary Shona Robison. Unfortunately it does not.  I decided to have a closer look at the nursing statistics and raised some questions with ISD, Scotland's equivalent to HSCIC, both organisations responsible for collating, analysing and publishing the statistics relating to the NHS.

I first asked ISD if they could confirm that Nicola Sturgeon was correct in her statement to parliament that there was an increase of 6% - the response was that it was correct


So it looks from this Sturgeon was correct and everything in hunky-dory
however...something's not right; this does not marry up with news headlines



and this



I wanted to look closer at the 43,418 figure. Forget the 29 interns - they are not qualified, so now we are down to 43,388 "qualified nurses".

ISD sent me the sub tables for nurse/midwifes workforce to examine



The sub tables have drop down menus that allow one to search by categories



The five categories are:


  • Hospital
  • Community
  • Hospital/Community Combined
  • Prison (Clinical staff came over to NHS control in 2013)
  • Other/Non applicable



Hospital

In this section I found there was an increase in qualified nurses/midwifes; and increase of  255 since 2011 (sub tables only went back to 2011)




Community 


In this section I found an increase of 401




Hospital/Community Combined

This section showed a decrease of 945



Prison 

This showed 196 nursing staff moved over to NHS




Other/Non applicable

This is a strange category and one I had to seek clarity from ISD as to its meaning




It was indeed very helpful! So office staff are included in the nursing figures as their pay in under Agenda for Change Pay Rates



This category shows the biggest increase over the years from 935 in 2011 to 2374 in 2016 - an increase of 1439


Oh dear and I thought the Tories were bad at using dodgy stats!

If we add up all the figures it shows 'real' qualified nurses/midwifes working in our NHS Scotland is 41,013 - lower than 2006 figures!


I shall be sending my findings to the Scottish Parliament - watch this space.



Monday, 25 April 2016

NHS workforce - It ain't rocket science

A stockbroker once said to me "the key to successful stockbroking is not looking at the companies financials/forecasts/market but rather its looking at these in conjunction with whats happening in our world through media reports, this influences the stock market more than individual company performance- it ain't rocket science".

He was demonstrating that statistics on their own are meaningless and in order to gauge the true picture one has to look at external influences and supporting evidence.

A case in point is the NHS workforce, if we are to believe the 'official' statistics, we now have record number of nurses in our NHS - so press headlines would reflect that ...

"Ward accidents increase as nurses falling over each other" 

"Patients complaining that they can't rest as too many nurses caring for them"

said no newspaper ever


Joking aside - we are told we have an increased nursing workforce add to that the huge number of bed closures and add those two together would give us a greater nurse to patient ratio.

BUT if the latter is correct then we would not have headlines like this .... National Health Executive


or this ... The Mirror 


and we certainly wouldn't be seeing the need for this ... The Telegraph 


All external evidence suggests that the government statistics are wrong  ... and they are




but you don't need a degree in mathematics to know when the government is lying about numbers; all you need to do is see if external reports support their statistics.









Thursday, 10 March 2016

NHS Scotland Workforce - What the SNP are not telling us

To much fanfare the SNP announced that there are more people working in our NHS Scotland than ever before as stated here  and from Shona Robison (Health Minister) here but the headlines are misleading and some of the claims are false.



Claim 1 - There are more working in our NHS than ever before, with over 10,000 more people



Claim 1 = False 
There are actually 6,633 more people working in the NHS but this figure also include those Health Care Professionals who are working in our prison service,agency nursing and a category classed as 'not assimilated/unknown'.
There are no figures for the amount of HCPs working in prisons so I cant subtract the number from the overall totals but I was able to subtract agency nurses.



Claim 2 - The are over 2,000 additional qualified nurses and midwives




Claim 2 = False 
If we added all staff that are on bands 1-9 then there are an additional 1,873 staff, still nowhere near the "over 2,000" claim. However if we take the actual number of "qualified nurses and midwifes" the total amount comes to 960 , however 70 of these are 'unknown' banding and therefore the figures could be lower if those 70 are >band 5.  I have no idea where the misleading "over 2,000" figure comes from; perhaps the SNP did a 'Lintern' and added the last three months of 2015 to hike up the totals instead of taking the figures from September of each year??




Claim 3 - There are over 2,500 more doctors





Claim 3 = False 
Keeping in mind that GPs are not included in ISD 'overall workforce stats' as they are not NHS 'employees' and therefore not on the HR system, then the total amount of additional doctors is 1,989.

I guess we should be thankful that at least there is an increase rather than a decrease but given that our ageing population has increased by 17% and due to rise to 25% over the coming years there is simply not enough staff or indeed the right kind of specialist staff to cope; under the SNP government we have seen decreases in specialised areas e.g.:

Acute                       140 nurses
Geriatric doctors     12.4%
Oncology                10.1%
Orthopedics            7.7%

So there you go folks, the SNP can spin NHS stats just as much as the Tories can.